As the world gathers in Belém, Brazil, today, 10 November, through 21 November 2025, for the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), one message will resonate across sectors – the transition to a low-carbon future is not optional, it is inevitable. For the South African mining sector, and particularly for mid-tier coal producers, this reality is already shaping both operational strategy and financial survival. The question confronting the industry is no longer whether to transition, but how to finance it responsibly, inclusively, and sustainably.
South Africa’s energy landscape is undergoing a profound transformation. As the global economy accelerates towards decarbonisation, coal-dependent regions face a complex challenge – balancing environmental imperatives with social justice and economic stability. The Just Energy Transition (JET), by its very nature, demands more than emission reduction. It calls for reskilling workers, diversifying local economies, rehabilitating land, and safeguarding the livelihoods of communities whose lives are intertwined with mining. Each of these goals requires significant investment, yet they also present an opportunity to reimagine the role of mining in a changing world.
The shift away from coal carries substantial financial implications. As global investors retreat from fossil fuel assets, the economic lifespan of coal operations is diminishing, and the cost of capital continues to rise. At the same time, social justice elements of the transition – essential for maintaining a social licence to operate – represent unfunded obligations that weigh heavily on balance sheets. Climate change itself adds another layer of complexity, as volatile weather patterns increase the risk of infrastructure damage, water scarcity, and operational disruptions.
Yet within these challenges lies an opportunity for reinvention. The mining sector can no longer afford a reactive stance; it must lead with financial innovation. Transition finance and adaptation finance, with emerging pillars of sustainable capital can provide a roadmap for transformation. Transition finance recognises that high-emission industries cannot shift overnight, but they can chart credible pathways toward decarbonisation. For Ndalamo Resources, this means developing a robust, time bound Just Energy Transition plan which aligns with the Paris Agreement.
Financing the transition also requires creativity. Blended finance models, where concessional funding from multilateral development banks is used to de-risk private capital, are critical. By structuring projects such as the integration of renewable energy into mining operations, the rehabilitation of mined land for new industrial use, and the establishment of local energy hubs, mid-tier miners can access international transition funds. Partnerships with mechanisms such as the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) can unlock capital specifically designed to help high-emission sectors move along credible decarbonisation pathways. Importantly, the social dimension must remain central. Establishing dedicated financial mechanisms, for example, community transition trusts funded from current revenues, ensures that affected workers and host communities share in the benefits of transformation. This approach aligns closely with the priorities expected to dominate the COP30 agenda, including the drive toward mobilising $1.3 trillion in global climate finance.
While phasing down coal is essential, adaptation is equally critical. Climate volatility is already reshaping risk profiles across the mining sector. Floods, heatwaves, and droughts are no longer hypothetical threats, they are operational realities. Mining companies must now integrate climate resilience into every financial decision. This means incorporating a climate resilience cost in capital allocation, treating climate-proofing measures such as water management systems, tailings upgrades, and infrastructure reinforcement as essential investments rather than discretionary expenses. Collaboration with local financial institutions, can help unlock adaptation financing and position mining projects within South Africa’s Green Finance Taxonomy framework, making them eligible for sustainable investment streams.
Transparency is a critical enabler in this process. By disclosing climate-related risks and resilience measures through globally recognised frameworks like the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), mining companies can reduce perceived risk and improve their access to capital. Investors are increasingly seeking evidence of resilience and accountability, not just profit potential. In this environment, openness is not a reputational choice, it is a financial necessity.
The Just Energy Transition is not only an environmental mandate; it is a financial transformation that challenges traditional business models. For the South African mid-tier coal industry, survival will depend on the ability to blend commercial discipline with social responsibility and to balance financial prudence with moral purpose. Transition and Adaptation Finance are no longer theoretical tools; they are the mechanisms through which the sector can ensure both relevance and resilience.
As the global community converges in Belém for COP30, South Africa’s mining industry has a chance to redefine its narrative. By embracing transparency, innovation, and inclusive growth, it can demonstrate that transformation is not merely an act of compliance but one of leadership. The sector’s future will be secured not by resisting change, but by shaping it and turning financial risk into opportunity and ensuring that the legacy of mining is not only about what was taken from the ground, but about what was built above it.
