What’s driving the rise in gold and silver prices?

Gold and silver are making headlines again, and this time it is because both metals pushed to fresh record highs in the latest session. On 12th January 2026, gold broke through US$4,600 per ounce for the first time, while silver climbed to a new peak above US$84.5 per ounce.

Moves like this do not happen on quiet days. The surge is being powered by a clear mix of fear, policy uncertainty, and positioning, with a few metal-specific factors that matter more for silver than for gold.

When gold and silver rise together at this speed, the market is usually sending a message about confidence in the outlook for rates, the US dollar, and geopolitical risk.

What is the cause of this surge?

1) Safe-haven demand has jumped on geopolitical stress

The clearest explanation is also the oldest one. When geopolitical risks rise, investors often reallocate toward perceived safe-haven assets.

For context, the metals record highs today are tied to rising geopolitical tensions, including unrest in Iran, and a wider rise in risk aversion.

When that kind of demand shows up, it tends to lift gold first, then pull silver along behind it. Silver often moves more sharply because it is smaller, more volatile, and more sensitive to flows.

2) The market is leaning toward lower US interest rates

Gold and silver do not pay interest. That means they often benefit when investors expect interest rates to fall, because the “opportunity cost” of holding metals drops.

In this most recent case, the weaker-than-expected US employment data increased expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts, which supported bullion.

Even if the Fed does not cut immediately, what matters for pricing is direction. When traders anticipate a downward shift, metals frequently adjust upward.

3) The US dollar has softened

A softer US dollar usually supports dollar-priced commodities. Today’s move also has an extra twist: the market is watching a highly unusual public conflict around the Federal Reserve.

For context, the dollar index fell approximately 0.3% to around 98.899, after news tied to a criminal investigation involving Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and gold jumped to a record in the same window.

For gold, this matters because it is not only about rates. It is also about trust. When investors worry that policy could become less predictable, they often want a hedge that does not depend on any single government’s promise.

4) Central Bank buying is still a major pillar for gold

One reason gold can trend for longer than many traders expect is that central bank demand can be steady and price-insensitive.

According to the World Gold Council, central banks purchased a net of 45 tonnes in November, bringing the total reported buying for the year through November to 297 tonnes.

That kind of underlying demand does not explain every intraday spike, but it can help explain why pullbacks have been shallow during strong cycles.

5) Silver has its own supply story, and it can turn rallies into spikes

Silver is part precious metal and part industrial metal. That mix can create explosive moves when investors pile in.

The Silver Institute stated the silver market was on course for a fifth consecutive structural deficit in 2025, with the deficit estimated at 95 million ounces.

They also highlighted a multi-year cumulative deficit of nearly 820 million ounces from 2021 to 2025, which helps explain why the silver market remains tight.

The same update also noted great changes in silver-backed product holdings during 2025, which is consistent with the idea that investment flows can quickly overwhelm available supply.

What this surge means for traders right now

Gold and silver at record highs do not automatically mean they must fall next. It does mean risk is higher, because expectations are now elevated and positioning can get crowded.

Here are the two practical takeaways to focus on:

1. Expect wider daily ranges

When metals reach new highs, volatility often rises. That is especially true for silver.

2. The next Macro headline can matter more than the last one

If inflation data surprises or if geopolitical risk cools, the market can reprice quickly. Reuters noted that markets are also focused on upcoming US inflation data, which can shape rate expectations.

XAUUSD and XAGUSD Technical Analysis

What is the table implying?

Currently, both metals still show bullish trend signals on the daily timeframe. However, momentum indicators appear extended, increasing the likelihood of a pause or pullback, even if the overall trend remains solid.

Key levels traders should monitor

Gold (XAU/USD):

• The US$4,600 area matters because it was the breakout level and a fresh psychological barrier.
• The mid-US$4,500 zone is crucial because it sits near recent consolidation and recent moving averages on many short-term views.

Silver (XAG/USD):

• The US$84 area is vital because it is the top of the day’s range and near the fresh high area.
• The low-US$80 zone matters because it is where the price spent time before the latest surge, and it can act as a first “line in the sand” if momentum cools.

What to watch next?

As mentioned above, a mix of macro data and headlines will likely shape the next move. Traders should pay attention to these items because they can change rate expectations quickly.

• US inflation data
• Any escalation or de-escalation in geopolitical stress
• Central bank activity

For silver, watch indicators of tightness such as demand for silver-backed products and any fresh signals about supply deficits.