Blencowe Resources announces an update to the commercial model underpinning the Definitive Feasibility Study (“DFS”) for the Orom-Cross graphite project in Uganda, reflecting a number of developments since the initial DFS was published in December 2025.
The updated model incorporates revised assumptions and inputs since the initial DFS, including new high value offtakers, updated pricing, costings and timings, expanded reserves incorporated into the mine plan, and increased confidence in product mix and saleability based on ongoing testwork and commercial engagement. Importantly, these improvements have been achieved without any increase in capital spend to deliver the project.
The revised commercial model increases Net Present Value10 (“NPV10”) by 15%, from US$1.087 billion to US$1.254 billion over the initial 15-year life of mine (“LOM”). While IRR has moderated versus the initial model due to updated inputs (specifically timing of capital spend), the revised DFS model continues to demonstrate robust economics with increased free cash generation.
Commercial model and scaling
Orom-Cross is expected to scale-up production in line with expected increased demand from offtakers for both concentrates and purified products. The Company’s view is that the project is less constrained by what it can produce than by what it can contract and sell into higher-value pathways, particularly as all upgraded products are now qualified and commercial terms for these are more evident.
Blencowe believes demand for natural flake graphite and upgraded products will continue to grow, specifically from Western markets seeking non-Chinese supply, while supply growth may remain constrained, thus supporting the opportunity for new entrants with scalable, high-quality product pathways and beneficiation.
Following successful bulk sample testing in 2025, the Company has continued engagement across multiple markets and sectors. Several new offtake agreements have been signed (including higher-value niche sales) and these are now reflected in the revised DFS model. Growth in net cash flow and NPV is largely the result of increased volumes of purified products sold as well as higher pricing for these as expected from Western markets. The Company expects to provide updates as further milestones are reached and disclosure is permitted.
The revised model reflects improved reserve confidence from the Stage 7 programme and incorporates the updated mine plan assumptions, providing greater assurance around production volumes and scalable operations over time.
Capital framework and phasing
Importantly, the revised DFS model reflects updated operating inputs (including fuel and equipment assumptions) without any increase in anticipated capital spend required to deliver the project:
- Phase 1 Production (P1): US$45 million (project equity-led pathway; faster start-up)
- Phase 2 Production (P2): US$125 million (scale-up and in-country downstream capability; predominantly debt-led)
This phasing supports a staged approach to de-risk execution while maintaining the long-term vision to deliver upgraded products in-country.
Blencowe notes the capital requirements are in the lowest percentile internationally and are highly competitive by industry standards, particularly as they cover both the Orom-Cross mining and processing operation and the beneficiation facility near Gulu.
Downstream pathway and non-China demand
The Company’s long-term strategy to deliver upgraded purified products remains core, including uncoated spheronised purified graphite (“USPG”) and expandables. Where appropriate, the Company expects to utilise third-party processing partners to upgrade in the interim while progressing in-country capability.
Demand for non-Chinese graphite products (particularly purified products) continues to build as Western markets seek supply chain resilience. The Company believes Orom-Cross’ expanding inventory, product options and developing commercial pathway significantly strengthen the project’s strategic relevance.
Uganda value-add and in-country beneficiation
Blencowe’s long-term strategy is to maximise in-country value-add in Uganda through the production of upgraded graphite products, including USPG and expandables, supported by beneficiation capacity near Gulu. This approach aligns with Uganda’s broader objectives around local processing and value addition, skills transfer and industrial development, while strengthening Orom-Cross’ positioning within resilient, non-China supply chains.
