Endeavour’s study for Assafou points to longer-term production outlook
Endeavour Mining PLC has released a definitive feasibility study (DFS) for its Assafou gold project in Ivory Coast, with key metrics broadly in line with expectations and unit costs coming in below forecasts, according to Stifel analysts.
The firm described the update as supportive for the company’s longer-term production outlook, highlighting the project’s role in underpinning Endeavour’s pathway toward higher output and portfolio expansion over the remainder of the decade.
“The study includes significant upside potential, both via expansion of the resource base and throughput increases,” the analysts wrote.
The Assafou DFS outlines a 5 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) processing plant using a conventional flowsheet involving two-stage crushing, high-pressure grinding rolls, ball milling, and gravity plus carbon-in-leach (CIL) recovery. The project is based on a mine life of 16 years, with average production of around 320,000 ounces per year in the first eight years and life-of-mine production averaging approximately 257,000 ounces annually.
Capital expenditure is estimated at about US$1.06 billion, broadly in line with expectations. However, all-in sustaining costs (AISC) came in at US$1,062 per ounce, materially below the broker’s forecast of around US$1,414 per ounce, which Stifel noted is a relatively rare positive surprise in the sector.
The study is based on 4.4 million ounces of reserves, calculated using a gold price assumption of US$1,500 per ounce. Stifel noted that this is conservative relative to its own estimate of 5 million ounces, which aligns more closely with measured and indicated resources. The analysts suggested that further conversion of resources into reserves could extend the mine life and help maintain production on a plateau for longer than currently modelled.
Stifel also highlighted optionality embedded in the project design. The processing plant has been sized with expansion in mind, including comminution circuit capacity that could allow for relatively straightforward throughput increases in the future.
They pointed to Endeavour’s prior track record of debottlenecking and expanding existing operations, citing Ity and Houndé as examples, and suggested that Assafou could potentially see a similar expansion of up to 50% over time.
On the development timeline, management is targeting a final investment decision (FID) by the end of the year. This is expected to follow completion of the mining convention, which will define fiscal and regulatory terms for the project. Mining permits have already been secured, and funding is expected to be manageable from Endeavour’s balance sheet, according to the note.
The development schedule outlined in the DFS suggests a construction and ramp-up period of approximately 24 to 30 months, implying first production could occur around late 2028. Stifel noted that this timeline makes their assumption of first production in Q4 2028 “look slightly bullish.”
The Assafou project is seen as a key component of Endeavour’s longer-term production strategy. The broker estimates it could contribute to a pathway toward approximately 1.5 million ounces of annual production by 2030, supported by a broader portfolio that could grow to six operating mines.
Stifel reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating on Endeavour Mining, with a price target of 5,150 p, implying upside from current levels of 4,595 p.
